AF10 - sooner than I thought?

36 posts / 0 new
Last post
lucyfersam lucyfersam's picture
AF10 - sooner than I thought?

So, the Debriefing the Dead sidebar in Gatecrashers has someone being questioned who just appeared with a First In team. This someone (Ms. Aster) gives her birthday as Dec. 27 1983. She remembers the war that became the fall, and says she never resleeved. Assuming her story is accurate, that means that in setting there will be Fall Evacuees who remember today. This puts the setting much closer to the present than I had generally thought of it, or perhaps they developed very good longevity treatments very early.

Gullinbursti Gullinbursti's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

I thought that 1983 seemed earlier then I would have thought too but, hey at least I might live through the fall and get to live during the transhumanist future :D

- Australian Newbie -

Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Hmm, a person born in 1983 could live to ~80 given normal life expectancies and a somewhat healthy lifestyle. That would put her in 2063. Now, how much advance in life extension could we expect over the next 53 years? (especially given EP's timeline of biotech and nanotech) Just a doubling of lifespan would put the new expiration date in 2143. By which point plenty of new tech will be around.

Then there is always cryonics. It is not too hard to believe that the advanced nanotech before the Fall could revive well-preserved patients (especially if it is a late suspension, when the suspension methods have also become much better than current ones). In *theory* the earliest still frozen cryonics patient, Dr James Bedford, who was born in 1893 and frozen in 1967, could have been revived and be around in the EP universe.

Extropian

GreyBrother GreyBrother's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Arenamontanus wrote:
Then there is always cryonics.

Hmmm... this seems like a hook to bring present day famous people into EP. A little bit like the fishtank heads of Futurama, but edgier. I can see moot (of 4chan fame) to establish an anarchist society.
Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Quote:
Assuming her story is accurate, that means that in setting there will be Fall Evacuees who remember today.

Hmm if IIRC the oligarchs in EP are from today. See Sunward for Ayn Zamyatin p.149-she was born to a man making fortune during the the collapse of Soviet Union. Presuming she was born then or within 10-20 years that would put her childhood around present day.

Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.

monjay monjay's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

I think it's quite reasonable to assume that advances in the medical sciences will gradually increase the lifespan of human even prior to immortality through a cortical stack. Don't they say the first person to live to reach 150 is alive right now?

nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

I think it's awesome, although not a completely ungrounded idea. Ray Kurzeil writes that's what will happen in his books (he's now ~64 and believes, quite optimistically, that he'll survive to see the singularity). Bruce Sterling's Holy Fire suggests a near future populated by people who were alive in the 2010s and now may live forever, and even CNN had a video clip a few years back about babies born now perhaps living to see that singularity.

Take care of yourself, eat right, exercise, and maybe you too will survive long enough to discard your body.

icekatze icekatze's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

hi hi

I think if you can assume the premise of exponential technology advancement, you could see people resleeving in a much shorter time. A breakthrough like a source of clean and plentiful energy would significantly alter the economics of these fields of research. If someone invented stable fusion power tomorrow, I suppose it might not be too far-fetched to see people resleeving within 20 years.

Personally, I don't think I am going to make it. A tragic automobile accident is most likely in my future.

monjay monjay's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

nezumi.hebereke wrote:
Take care of yourself, eat right, exercise, and maybe you too will survive long enough to discard your body.

What's the fun in that???

Drink whiskey, smoke cigars, and drive fast cars with loose women.

Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

monjay wrote:
nezumi.hebereke wrote:
Take care of yourself, eat right, exercise, and maybe you too will survive long enough to discard your body.

What's the fun in that???

Drink whiskey, smoke cigars, and drive fast cars with loose women.

The goal is to maximize the integral of the fun you have across your lifespan.

I did a mathematical analysis of this a few years ago and concluded that the best strategy appears to be to "sin" just so much that one will squeeze by the singularity/longevity takeoff, and then sin as much as is feasible with available body repair.

So if you think the singularity will come early, go for the cigars and women (cars will still kill you, even if you have a cryonics contract - you are likely to be autopsied). If you are uncertain, play a more cautious game.

Extropian

pablofiasco pablofiasco's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

i think i heard teh whole "alive now, amybe alive to singularity" explained as
a bridge, to a bridge, to a bridge, etc etc
basically, the stuff from now, gets us to the next step, and that step, gets you to the next, and so on, and so forth

(personally, i hope to be chilling in sim space some time around mars orbit, and feel some nostaliga to dig up the internet archives and re-read all these "ancient" posts and argumetns :) )

"the hunt is not complete until the targets heart is pulled from its chest and eaten" -hunter

ssfsx17 ssfsx17's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Since it's possible for characters to have "Immortality Blues," a condition normally reserved for centuries-old vampires, it might simply be that the cortical stack or brain-slicing was invented within our lifetimes, and it took many more years for the Fall to happen.

Still, they must have surely tested the technology on preserved dead people first... maybe Einstein and Lenin were brought back as experiments?

Really evil idea: a TITAN based on what was left of the brain of someone like Patton, bin-Laden, Mao Zedong, or what have you


@-rep: 2 | x-rep: 1 | y-rep: 1

nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

So given that we are in (or just bouncing off of) the singularity, and that science is now expanding faster than we have time to keep up with it, that what was once 'impossible' is now hard, and what is hard is now trivial - how long until we figure out how to map the quantum states of those already deceased, and literally resurrect the dead?

And indeed, I believe our last count was with the Fall being around 2250. So that means our oldest characters should be just pushing 300, if they're very lucky. Here's hoping a few of these oldsters get nostalgic and bring back leopard print and hair bands ;)

Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

As somebody noticed on rpg.net-Lady Gaga is mentioned as still alive in Gatecrashing-page 86.
;)

Quote:

And indeed, I believe our last count was with the Fall being around 2250.

I feel a lot better about the date being in 2140s. It makes more sense this way.2250 seems too far considering continued existance of certain political entities and institutions.

Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.

Saerain Saerain's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

It has been my assumption that the Fall was not that far from modern predictions in regards to strong AI and the Singularity (2045-2080, depending mainly on political resistance, Luddite terrorism and the like). Seeing that the EP timeline invokes a few more major hurdles than that—like the climate changes and energy shortages we're not currently sure are going to happen—and places the construction of a space elevator at BF 60+ (LiftPort slates their construction for October of 2031, whilst the Japan Space Elevator Association says they're more optimistic, yet not by how much), I came to assume that the Fall was about 2091-2097, making 1983 not too exceptional, I'd think, as far as evacuees go.

It that must no... It that must not be named's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

ssfsx17 wrote:
Since it's possible for characters to have "Immortality Blues," a condition normally reserved for centuries-old vampires, it might simply be that the cortical stack or brain-slicing was invented within our lifetimes, and it took many more years for the Fall to happen.

Still, they must have surely tested the technology on preserved dead people first... maybe Einstein and Lenin were brought back as experiments?

Really evil idea: a TITAN based on what was left of the brain of someone like Patton, bin-Laden, Mao Zedong, or what have you

For an example of the immortaility blues and transhumanism, see the movie "Zardoz".

"I learned the hard way that if you take a stand on any issue, no matter how insignificant, people will line up around the block to kick your ass over it." -Jesse "the mind" Ventura.

root root's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

root@AF10


I can't really see this as happening any time soon, but I'll admit to not having a thorough understanding of AI and theoretical computer science related to it. What I do know is that we can't come close to duplicating the complexity of a rat brain yet, let alone a human. There is quite a bit of hype over memristors, and the IEEE Spectrum magazine has used the Singularity as a cover story a few times in the last few years, but we aren't very close. Another thing to keep in mind is the inverse relationship between the age of a futurist and when they think practical immortality will occur.

[ @-rep +1 | c-rep +1 | g-rep +1 | r-rep +1 ]

Saerain Saerain's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

You would think so, but I don't see it. I don't have dates on when every one of these individuals/teams estimates that life extension reaches escape velocity, but I do have their singularity predictions:

Eliezer Yudkowsky
Born: 1979
Predicts: 2030

Nick Bostrom
Born: 1973
Predicts: 2024

Didier Sornette and Anders Johansen
Born: 1950s
Predict: 2040-2060

Laurent Nottale, Jean Chaline, and Pierre Grou
Born: 1950s
Predict: 2050-2110

Ray Kurzweil
Born: 1948
Predicts: 2045

Hans Moravec
Born: 1948
Predicts: 2040-2050

Vernor Vinge
Born: 1944
Predicts: 2030

Marvin Minsky
Born: 1927
Predicts: 2070

root root's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

root@AF10


But my only source for my opinion is superior because it is funny! Damn you and your silly fact-based thinking!

[ @-rep +1 | c-rep +1 | g-rep +1 | r-rep +1 ]

Saerain Saerain's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

I like it. The joke is almost XKCD-worthy, and I imagine that's exactly what goes on in the minds of general non-nerds when they really like what a futurist has to say.

It that must no... It that must not be named's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

If lady gaga is supposed to survive into the EP era, I guess some people are expecting a universal cure for STDs pretty soon....;)

"I learned the hard way that if you take a stand on any issue, no matter how insignificant, people will line up around the block to kick your ass over it." -Jesse "the mind" Ventura.

Nathan Brazil Nathan Brazil's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

The other thing to take into consideration is that the interview is false in some level. I think that for the following reason: omniscient vs personal view.
The text involving some of the other date clues are in the light blue boxes, for example the one about Neptune being in specific season. This is omniscient information of the authors given to the readers of the book. The text in the discussion that prompted the o.p. is in game/in universe is personal view. I assume that the conversation has taken place in universe with us as invisible observers, but who knows? Our "forced uplift" may be a plant from a TITAN.

That is how I have been interpreting information in the books. The light blue box information is fact, other information may or may not be factual, but most especially discussions regardless of communication method are suspect.

That is assuming that planetary configurations in the EC universe are identical to ours.

I hope I made myself clear about views. English comp was my worst subject.

Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Another hint regarding timeline:Sunward page 82 dates "earnest" industralisation of Luna to second half of XXI century.

Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.

Saerain Saerain's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

I just realized that page 107 of the core states that Uranus is currently in its south polar mid-spring. So, AF 10 must be either about 2143 or 2227, without straying too far from what other indications mentioned here suggest. I'd include 2060, but I just re-read the Titanian Commonwealth stuff on p. 79 that says Titan was colonized in the 'late 21st century.' Not to mention what Extrasolar Angel just mentioned about Luna.

Jürgen Hubert Jürgen Hubert's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Saerain wrote:
I just realized that page 107 of the core states that Uranus is currently in its south polar mid-spring. So, AF 10 must be either about 2143 or 2227, without straying too far from what other indications mentioned here suggest. I'd include 2060, but I just re-read the Titanian Commonwealth stuff on p. 79 that says Titan was colonized in the 'late 21st century.' Not to mention what Extrasolar Angel just mentioned about Luna.

2143 sounds about right to me.

Personally, I would have put the current date at about 2150, but only because I think that that would make a good fit with the Transhuman Space timeline... ;)

Arcana Wiki - Distilling the Real World for Gaming
Urbis - A World of Cities

Nathan Brazil Nathan Brazil's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Saerain wrote:
I just realized that page 107 of the core states that Uranus is currently in its south polar mid-spring. So, AF 10 must be either about 2143 or 2227, without straying too far from what other indications mentioned here suggest. I'd include 2060, but I just re-read the Titanian Commonwealth stuff on p. 79 that says Titan was colonized in the 'late 21st century.' Not to mention what Extrasolar Angel just mentioned about Luna.

Yep and that's what makes Kyla Free Aster testimony suspect. If those years are precise, then the Fall was in 2133 or 2217. Say it took a whole year. That makes BF 60 to BF 40 either 2073-2093 or 2157-2177. I point those years out because the core book timeline says longevity treatments became available in BF60-BF40. This makes Kayla around 90-110 or 174-194 years old at the time she began longevity treatments and thus 110-130 or 204-224 during the Fall.

Note, her claim that she has never resleeved.

Some might argue that the longevity treatment also de-aged or rejuvenated people. I think not, or morphs as an immortality option might not have been as popular

Saerain Saerain's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

It does confuse me that morphs age, however slowly, with nanotechnology in the state it apparently is in. The absence of the ability to recover from aging, if true, would confuse me just as much. Hmph.

nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Nathan Brazil wrote:
This makes Kayla around 90-110 or 174-194 years old at the time she began longevity treatments and thus 110-130 or 204-224 during the Fall.

This may be explained by Kurzweil's "A Bridge to a Bridge". I don't have the book in front of me, but he speculated that if scientists found cures for the top 10 big killers, it would extend the average lifespan to about 100, and if they cured the top 50, it would extend the lifespan to over 150. Sweet Kayla was born in... '83? So we've got about 40 more years for scientists to find a cure for heart disease, cancer, stroke, respiratory disease, alzheimer's and diabetes. That'll buy her 30 years for them to cure the rest. Throw in some luck and you're golden. Her story may be suspect, but it isn't unbelievable.

Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Quote:
This makes Kayla around 90-110 or 174-194 years old at the time she began longevity treatments and thus 110-130 or 204-224 during the Fall.

Not that unbelievable-if she is around 90 during longevity treatments.In 50 years, 90 years could be equivalent to say 70 among the rich elites of first world countries.

Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.

babayaga babayaga's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

One little factoid I'd throw in, without even managing to cite the source, is that in the last 10 years the average lifespan in western countries has grown by almost 2 years. If you assume this stays linear, it just buys one a decade over then next half a century. It's certainly very reasonable to assume at least a little acceleration, and assume that someone born in the last quarter of the 20th century is more likely than not to see the beginning of the 22nd.

The Doctor The Doctor's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Extrasolar Angel wrote:
As somebody noticed on rpg.net-Lady Gaga is mentioned as still alive in Gatecrashing-page 86.
;)

It might be a common in-joke of SF RPGs to have media stars of the time namedropped. Cyberspace by ICE had Madonna as an NPC fashion designer and media magnate addicted to a longevity regimen back in the day. :)



Eleazar Eleazar's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Saerain wrote:
I just realized that page 107 of the core states that Uranus is currently in its south polar mid-spring. So, AF 10 must be either about 2143 or 2227, without straying too far from what other indications mentioned here suggest. I'd include 2060, but I just re-read the Titanian Commonwealth stuff on p. 79 that says Titan was colonized in the 'late 21st century.' Not to mention what Extrasolar Angel just mentioned about Luna.

Also note that Eris is "55 AU" out from the Sun, which cannot happen until in the years ~2189-2192 (according to Celestia, so if that program's wrong, disregard everything I say). If you figure it's just a broad, rounded number, you might expand that 55 to be 52.5 or 57.49 or whatever. Another option is to assume when they're talking about Uranus' poles, they're using whatever definition corresponds with the 55 AU location of Eris.

Or they just messed up on their astronomy. ; )

Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Quote:
Also note that Eris is "55 AU" out from the Sun, which cannot happen until in the years ~2189-2192 (according to Celestia, so if that program's wrong, disregard everything I say). If you figure it's just a broad, rounded number, you might expand that 55 to be 52.5 or 57.49 or whatever. Another option is to assume when they're talking about Uranus' poles, they're using whatever definition corresponds with the 55 AU location of Eris.

Of course another option is that Eris-being a rather smaller celestial object- was moved by technological means ;)

Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.

Lord High Munchkin Lord High Munchkin's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

I have always thought AF 10 was 2146... but that might be just me.

nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Eleazar wrote:

Also note that Eris is "55 AU" out from the Sun, which cannot happen until in the years ~2189-2192 (according to Celestia, so if that program's wrong, disregard everything I say). If you figure it's just a broad, rounded number, you might expand that 55 to be 52.5 or 57.49 or whatever. Another option is to assume when they're talking about Uranus' poles, they're using whatever definition corresponds with the 55 AU location of Eris.

Or they just messed up on their astronomy. ; )

I suspect the latter. I played with Celestia, matching the approximate locations of Jupiter/Saturn, Pluto/Neptune and Eris and I could not find any year which matched the provided map moving 3,000 years forward or 500 years backwards. However, 2146 synchs up nicely enough for government work as long as you ignore Ceres and Eris (and note that Eris's orbit is completely wrong, since it never slinks within Neptune's on the map, and never slings off into the distance).

Sticking to 2146, I used the inner system to fine-tune for month and day and came up with (again, ignoring Ceres), 9/29. Someone else using Celestia came up with 9/9.

Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: AF10 - sooner than I thought?

Saerain wrote:
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Born: 1979
Predicts: 2030

I just asked him about whether he still thought this, and he guessed a probability distribution that peaked a bit more mid-century, but he also remarked that the true answer is of course "darned if I know" expressed as a probability.

Extropian